Fiscal inflation and cosmetic defaults in a small open economy
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Date
2021-10
Authors
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Publisher
Banco Central de Chile
Abstract
For a small open economy, maintaining a stable exchange rate and moderate levels of inflation is often a goal of primary importance. At the same time, the profession has recognized the tight link between fiscal and monetary policies in determining inflation dynamics. Thus, the goal of a stable exchange rate requires a certain level of coordination between the monetary and fiscal authorities. This paper builds on recent advancements in the literature on monetary-fiscal policy interaction to formalize this idea. We study the origins of fiscal inflation, the possibility of stagflation as a result of policy uncertainty, and the role of default on sovereign debt crises that stem from lack of fiscal discipline. We then use the model to interpret the different periods of the Chilean economic history starting from the 1960s.
Description
For a small open economy, maintaining a stable exchange rate and moderate levels of inflation is often a goal of primary importance. At the same time, the profession has recognized the tight link between fiscal and monetary policies in determining inflation dynamics. Thus, the goal of a stable exchange rate requires a certain level of coordination between the monetary and fiscal authorities. This paper builds on recent advancements in the literature on monetary-fiscal policy interaction to formalize this idea. We study the origins of fiscal inflation, the possibility of stagflation as a result of policy uncertainty, and the role of default on sovereign debt crises that stem from lack of fiscal discipline. We then use the model to interpret the different periods of the Chilean economic history starting from the 1960s.
Keywords
INFLACIÓN, TIPO DE CAMBIO, POLÍTICA MONETARIA, POLÍTICA FISCAL